According to MoffettNathanson senior analyst Craig Moffett, planned fiber to the home passings more than doubled in 2021 to 4.2 million from 1.9 million in 2020. What’s more, Moffett predicts that they should almost double again to 7.8 million passings by 2022. He added that planned fiber passings will climb to 9.4 million in 2023, 9 million in 2024 and 8.3 million in 2025.

Most of the fiber growth will be ushered in by three carriers: AT&T, Lumen (with Apollo Global) and Frontier. Moffett estimates that AT&T will add 4,000 fiber passings in 2022, 3.75 million in 2023, 3.25 million in 2024 and 2.6 million in 2025. Lumen is projected to add 1 million, 2.4 million, 2.5 million and 2.5 million passings in those years, while Frontier will likely add 1 million, 1.5 million, 1.6 million and 1.6 million.

Moffett also predicts that Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) subscriber additions will rise sharply in the next two years, but then begin to trail off in 2024. At the Bank of America Securities Conference, cable broadband provider Comcast Deputy Chief Financial Officer Jason Armstrong said that although fixed wireless is seeing gains, he is most concerned about fiber competition.